ASML CEO发出警告，直言欧洲不应受制于人

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来源：内容编译自经济学人，谢谢。

ASML 处于令人羡慕的地位。这家荷兰公司是唯一一家能够可靠地蚀刻最先进半导体的设备制造商，从人工智能 (AI) 加速器到智能手机芯片，无所不包。即使是汽车和洗衣机中不太复杂的处理器，其机器也占全球销售额的 90% 以上。没有竞争对手能与之匹敌。

然而，该公司的主导地位并没有使其免受问题困扰。为了阻止中国的人工智能野心，美国禁止 ASML 向中国公司出售其最先进的设备。而且对 ASML 更基本工具的需求也减弱了。该公司被迫在 10 月份下调了 2025 年的销售预测，导致其股价下跌了五分之一。尽管如此，在最近接受《经济学人》采访时，ASML 的老板 Christophe Fouquet 表达了乐观的语气——并将矛头指向了欧洲政策制定者。

ASML 在多个方面都面临商业困难。中国产能过剩导致芯片供过于求，降低了其他地区对其更基础的机器的需求。与此同时，该公司最新、最先进的极紫外 (EUV) 机器每台售价超过 3.5 亿美元，芯片制造商对此的反应褒贬不一。该工具将处理能力塞进越来越小的区域，这对于制造尖端的人工智能芯片至关重要。然而，并非所有客户都相信其精度与价格相符。研究公司 SemiAnalysis 表示，使用旧工具也可以获得类似的结果，尽管制造过程更加复杂。

此类设备的市场本身就很有限。只有少数几家公司拥有部署它的专业知识和购买力。尽管台湾芯片制造商、ASML 的最大客户台积电正在推进美国和台湾的新工厂建设，但英特尔和三星最近因财务困难而降低了资本支出。尽管如此，Fouquet 先生对 ASML 的商业前景持乐观态度。他预计人工智能的进步将促使芯片制造商采用最新的 EUV 机器。

更令他担忧的是地缘政治。2019 年，荷兰政府在美国的敦促下禁止 ASML 向中国出口其先进的 EUV 机器，ASML 面临的压力开始增加。美国和荷兰当局实施的限制范围不断扩大，随后扩展到一些较旧的深紫外机器。Fouquet 先生说，即使在拜登执政期间，限制的理由也并不总是很清楚。唐纳德·特朗普总统的第二任期带来了更严格的控制威胁，几乎可以保证会出现更多的不确定性。因此，ASML 的规划变得更加困难。

因此，Fouquet 先生认为欧洲政界人士和政策制定者应该做更多的事情来帮助他的公司。ASML 总部位于埃因霍温郊区，是欧洲唯一一家在关键行业拥有近乎垄断地位的公司，这使其具有战略重要性。谈到荷兰政府愿意效仿美国实施出口禁令，富凯表示，欧洲必须“自己决定想要什么”，“不应受制于他人”。他希望欧洲大陆的官员能够更有力地支持其世界领先的公司。他警告说，如果他们不这样做，这些公司可能就不想留在欧洲了。

事实上，情况必须变得更糟，ASML 才会考虑离开。该公司极其复杂的供应链主要位于欧洲。而且，如果 ASML 真的搬走，它仍将受到美国广泛的出口管制，因为它依赖圣地亚哥子公司 Cymer 的技术。不过，Fouquet 的威胁表明了他有多沮丧。

他警告说，如果各国政府“在某些决定上做得过火”，后果可能会远远超出任何一家公司。半导体行业共同创造的“奇迹”最终建立在一条微妙的“信任链”上，以深度专业化和协作为特征。这条链现在正面临压力；如果这条链断裂，“可能会危及我们今天认为非常了不起的一些东西”，Fouquet 警告说。也许是这样。但欧洲的政策制定者有很多问题需要处理，而 ASML 的福祉远远排在他们的后面。

原文：

ASML’s boss has a warning for Europe

ASML is in an enviable position. The Dutch company is the only manufacturer of equipment that can reliably etch the most advanced semiconductors, as required for everything from artificial-intelligence (AI) accelerators to smartphone chips. Even for less sophisticated processors—the type found in cars and washing machines—its machines account for over 90% of global sales. No rival comes close.

The firm’s dominance has not spared it from problems, however. In an attempt to thwart China’s AI ambitions, America has barred ASML from selling its most advanced equipment to Chinese companies. And demand for asml’s more basic tools has weakened, too. The firm was forced to cut its sales forecast for 2025 in October, causing its share price to drop by a fifth. Nevertheless, in a recent interview with The Economist, Christophe Fouquet, ASML’s boss, struck a bullish tone—and took aim at European policymakers.

ASML faces commercial difficulties on a number of fronts. Chinese overcapacity has produced a chip glut, lowering demand for its more basic machines elsewhere. Meanwhile, the firm’s latest and most advanced extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) machines, which cost more than $350m each, have received a mixed response from chipmakers. The tool crams processing power into ever smaller areas, as is essential for making cutting-edge AI chips. Yet not all customers are convinced the precision justifies the price. According to SemiAnalysis, a research firm, similar results can be achieved using older tools, albeit with a fiddlier manufacturing process.

The market for such equipment is inherently limited. Only a handful of companies have the know-how and spending power to deploy it. Although TSMC, a Taiwanese chipmaker and ASML’s biggest customer, is pressing ahead with new American and Taiwanese plants, Intel and Samsung have recently lowered their capital spending because of financial difficulties. Still, Mr Fouquet is upbeat about ASML’s commercial prospects. He expects AI advances to prompt chipmakers to adopt the latest EUV machines.

What troubles him more is geopolitics. The pressure on ASML began to build in 2019, when the Dutch government, at America’s urging, barred the company from exporting its advanced EUV machines to China. Widening restrictions, enforced by both the American and Dutch authorities, subsequently extended to some older deep-ultraviolet machines. Even under Mr Biden the rationale for restrictions was not always clear, Mr Fouquet says. President Donald Trump’s second term brings the threat of still tighter controls, and the near-guarantee of more uncertainty. As a consequence, planning has become much more difficult for ASML.

Hence Mr Fouquet thinks that European politicians and policymakers should be doing more to help his company. With its head office on the outskirts of Eindhoven, ASML is Europe’s only firm with something approaching a monopoly in a critical industry, making it strategically important. Referring to the Dutch government’s willingness to follow America’s lead on export bans, Mr Fouquet says that Europe must “decide for itself what it wants” and “should not be dictated to by anyone else”. He would like the continent’s officials to support their world-leading companies more forcefully. If they fail to do so, he warns, such firms may not want to remain in Europe.

In reality, things would have to get much worse for ASML to even consider leaving. The company’s extraordinarily sophisticated supply chain is largely located in Europe. And if ASML did move it would still be subject to America’s broad export controls, since it relies on technology from Cymer, a subsidiary in San Diego. Mr Fouquet’s threats nevertheless indicate the extent of his frustration.

If governments “go overboard with some decisions”, he warns, the consequences could spread far beyond any single firm. What the semiconductor industry has created together is “a miracle” that is ultimately built on a delicate “chain of trust”, featuring deep specialisation and collaboration. That is now under strain; if the chain is broken it “could put some of the things we find so extraordinary today at risk”, Mr Fouquet cautions. Maybe so. But policymakers in Europe have plenty of problems they need to deal with, and the wellbeing of asml is far down their list.

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/pat-gelsinger-has-advice-for-lip-bu-tan-as-he-settles-into-one-of-the-hardest-jobs-available

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